Conference WiFi IS important

Robert Scoble writes about whether having a decent WiFi connection at a conference is something that important, and concludes that if you can afford the $3500 price tag to get in, you can also afford a $80 a month Verizon mobile data plan. Ethan Kaplan thinks it is important, and I agree, but for different motives.
What Robert fails to appreciate is, that while Web 2.0 may be more US-centered in terms of visitor origin, there are many conferences where the bulk of atendees come from abroad. In this case, it makes little sense to get into a Verizon plan just for the few days when you are visiting. Roaming data charges (when roaming data connections such as GPRS even work, which I found impossible around California) are astronomical.

I am in favor of event organizers providing a good quality, solid and stable WiFi connection, even though it can be very expensive. An example was the WOMMA conference at the San Francisco Hilton, which didn’t provide WiFi, as the hotel wanted $20.000 to put a router in the hall. However, a compromise between the two postulates would be for Verizon to offer a rent-a-card service. Just like I pick up my car at Hertz for a week at SFO, I could also pick up a Verizon card, use it while moving about, and return it at the airport before leaving the country. I can already hear critics saying “but people would just keep the cards” – maybe, but what good would they be to them? Additionally, just like you have a retainer placed on your credit card when you rent a car, the same could apply to the card, if you don’t return it, Verizon actually could make more money!

HiddenNetwork pays bloggers to propagate job offers

Reading The Daily WTF today, a neat site that posts screw-ups made by programmers and tech management, I noticed the owner mentions his new company, HiddenNetwork.com. What strikes me is that they are targeting bloggers straight on, paying them to run a JavaScript banner that links to job offers, paid for by the employers looking for talent.

A blogger who signs up will receive $5 per 1.000 impressions, and $25 for each employee referral. In theory, only good quality jobs are posted through this network. This is not exactly like paying bloggers to write product reviews, which stirred a good deal of controversy, but what would happen if a blogger writes bad about a company or product whose job offer is appearing right above the post?

Who says Google doesn’t already have deals with the copyright owners?

Reading with interest the flurry of posts about Google’s purchase of YouTube for around $1.6 billion, it seems the main worry right now is that since Google is a very rich company ($131 billion cap!), the lawsuits for copyright violations will start raining faster than you can say MPAA. Mark Cuban is particularly pessimistic about the business decision.

My take is that Google in general, Larry and Sergey in particular, are rather smart, and would not have taken this step, putting the entire company at risk, without first having an agreement with the main content providers that would be likely to sue. This would include TV networks, MPAA, RIAA and the usual suspects. A very obvious conclusion is that if there is money to be made placing ads on content, or selling premium accounts the way Flickr does, why can this not be shared with the copyright owners?

A more twisted conclusion is that the copyright owners could be giving up on microcontrolling every individual byte in an Orwellian manner, and see the light. What is better at promoting new content than the word-of-mouth of millions of fans?

YouTube videos are of notoriously bad quality for the most part, in essence, making it possible to turn the originals into streamable flash clips. Have you ever tried to watch a video full screen? It sucks. What the clip may do is convince me to go out and buy the DVD!

Time will see, but I place my bets on a blanket all-you-can-eat license that will allow YouTube to promote content, keeping both users and moguls happy. 15-second ads at the start of each video? Maybe, but then if you pay us $19.95 a year…

The real FON statistics – lies, manipulation or fantasy

On September 14th, FON launched the new version of their online mapping service, after several months of complaints from users that the service wasn’t up to scratch, and announcements stating the development team was working on the problem.

On a first look, the maps look really nice – they use Google Maps, by default in the mixed view, where you see a satellite image and an overlay of roads and placemarks. I will not bore you with the details, as it is better that you check them out yourself and make up your mind.

This post is not intended as a review of the service itself, but rather, a revelation of the real figures behind FON’s network – peeking under the layer of PR and flamboyance. Martin Varsavsky is always boasting about FON being the largest WiFi community of the world – in my view, this is not accurate.
During months, FON has been claiming to be a “movement”, with a marked communist image behind (the marching workers, the spray-painted logos, etc.). This movement was supposed to kill mobile operators, who currently oppress people with their sky-high tariffs. We could go into a long debate just on this topic, but lets move on. During all this time, FON has suffered untold problems with staffing, PR mini-scandals, shipping broken routers or taking weeks and months to even send them out, not replying to repeated requests to support@fon.com, and blatantly ignoring the public forums, where the community behind the movement was expressing its increasing anger and frustration.

The blinding truth – less than 3.700 routers online worldwide

Digging a bit deeper into the workings behind the maps, I have found that there is a method to run a query to retrieve all the hotspots in FON’s database, not just two hundred, or those in a particular region. If you want to see an example, click here. This is a query that will return all hotspots on the planet that have been FONing home during the last hour. It can take a little while to load, so be patient. Until a couple of days ago, results were returned in XML format, which has been dropped in favor of the new plain, comma-delimited format.

I predict that FON will not like the above link, and thus will try to either change the format of the php call, or add artificial records to confuse the application I have written to process the data. First, I wrote a simple application using RealBasic (having been a long-time Visual Basic acolyte, it is a welcome change, allowing me to code under Mac and Windows transparently) – source code here. A screenshot of a full run is shown below.

Application screenshot

Just from the details shown after the run, a few enlightening facts surface:

  • The highest user ID found is 92.192, but the total amount of processed records is only 55.384. I have to investigate a bit further, but it appears that in some cases, a record is stored twice, once holding the user type (Linus, Alien or Bill), and again holding the router mode (online or unknown). This is the reason why some people see both the orange dot and the green halo on their locations at maps.fon.com, and also the reason why at this time I cannot confirm that the real number of Foneros is 43.896.
  • There are only 3.674 routers online on the entire planet. So much for the largest WiFi community in the world. The other 7.814 are registered routers, from which nothing has been heard during the last hour. These figures have been checked a few times during the last few days, and they stay more or less constant.
  • Out of the entire user base, only 1.317 have become Bills. So much for milking one’s WiFi.
  • The highest router ID found in the results was 19.889, so if we add offline and online routers (best case scenario), then around 8.401 routers have never been registered, representing 42.2% of sold routers. Extrapolating this to the 1 million routers Martin wants to sell would results in a loss of $10.55 million!.

Looking at the per-country statistics (per-city could be made, given some extra time and coding), some curious details also stand out:

  • There are two registered routers in Afghanistan – but neither is online. Not surprising, considering the amount of explosives that have been dropped on the place.
  • China and Taiwan have 9 routers registered, but none online. Martin was blogging about his expansion into Asia, which looks rather bleak right now. 165 Foneros are registered however.
  • Germany and Spain have around the same number of registered routers, although Germany almost doubles Spain in the number of online routers.
  • The United States ranks third in number of registered and online routers, however, it holds the highest number of Bills (408). The next is Germany, with 237.

Finally, we can derive a few figures from these numbers. These are highly interpreted, and must be taken as theoretical extremes.

  • If FON sold one $3 one-day pass every day of the year on each of the online routers, it would make a gross income of $4 million. This is before tax and the Bill’s share where applicable. You at the back, stop giggling!
  • Making a wild assumption that each router’s signal reaches 100 people, FON would only cover 0.11% of Germany’s population of 82 million.
  • Boingo gives you access to 45.000 hotspots. FON has about 8% of that figure, and with location quality debatable – it is a fact most FON hotspots will not be optimized for even street-level coverage.

I believe it is time for FON to stop boasting about having the largest WiFi community in the world, and start concentrating on its real problems. And if they still don’t know what these are, they have a nice summary at the online forums. Besides, for spending 500.000 Euros per month, this is a pretty poor show, in my humble opinion.

AllPeers: Suckiness 2.0 (Beta)

Finally, after months and months of hype and excitement, AllPeers launched. In Beta of course, lest it not be considered a Web 2.0 company.

Me and a friend installed the FireFox plugin, and fired it up. To start with, the buddy search mechanism is terrible. I actually typed my friend’s name, got a result, and added it to my roster – turns out it wasn’t even his profile. You cannot see details about the search results, which is a problem. With Skype, for example, sometimes you can turn up a dozen of hits on a buddy search, but at least you can get an idea of who is behind each result.

Once added a friend, it was time to share some files. I added a couple to my shared folder, and the files showed up there. My friend could not see them. I refreshed, and the files dissapeared. By the time I ended the test and decided to remove the plugin, I still hadn’t managed to get the files to stay put. My friend shared one file. It showed up twice on my screen (?!). The actual download of the file went well, but after that, the files also dissapeared from his screen.
There are a lot of bugs as it stands – at one stage, I had a buddy selected, but the screen showed “When ABC shares some files, you will see them here”, where ABC was my nickname. When I removed a buddy from my list, I could still see his shared files until I changed the folder view!
Frankly, platforms such as Pando work much better in terms of stability and ease of use. I am sure AllPeers will eventually iron out the issues, but right now, the service is a non-starter. This post also talks about the system being built upon a bug in FireFox, which when fixed will kill its ability to work as a P2P endpoint – any confirmation on this?